Welcome…

ScottWelcome to The Capitalist Trader, where I discuss markets, money, and math, while promoting reason and liberty. I’m Scott, better known around the interwebz as Capitalist, and I’ll be your host.

If this is your first time at The Capitalist Trader, you may want to read about the site and maybe even a little about me and my mission.  Have a question or a comment? Head over to the Contact tab.

I’ve traded several different markets including equities, fixed income, and options since the 1980’s (yep, I’m old).  Since 2004 however, I’ve concentrated on the foreign exchange, or Forex, markets. Many of the trading resources you’ll find on the site relate specifically to Forex.

So come on in, make yourself comfortable and…keep pipping up!

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Update — 3/25/2017

Greetings!

The account was up a whopping 9.7% this week, bringing it to a new high of 132% of inception value. I’m still trying to find time to work on the third $8 research report; the one on the Fundamental Potential Index. The flip side of that coin is that I’m raking in the bucks at my time-consuming job, so I’m getting back on my feet slowly but surely.

Until next week…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

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Update – 3/18/2017

Greetings!

The account gave up almost all of last week’s gains this week.  Still trying to get some time to work on the third research report.  Until next week…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

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Update 3-11-2017

Greetings!

The account had a nice gain of 3.76% this week, bringing it up to about 124% of its original value back at the beginning of October.  In site news, I’m working on a third $8 Research Report. This time, it’s the long-awaited report on the Fundamental Potential Index (FPI).

So stay tuned for that, and until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE:  As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

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Update 3-4-2017

Greetings!

I’m slowly digging myself out of my financial plight. In terms of trading, the account had a slight decline this week, but managed to hold onto the lion’s share of its gains from the prior week.

So until next week…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

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Ongoing income crisis

Greetings all!

Once again I’ve been MIA from the site for a couple of weeks, and once again it’s because I’m struggling to make ends meet in today’s minimum wage economy.

This time, the company for which I was working got bought out, they changed the payroll system, and the paychecks for many of the employees (myself included) went down a black hole, never to be seen again.  I promptly went broke, walked out of that job, and went back to my previous one. So for now, I’m scraping by and trying to recover.

Things are looking slightly rosier now though. I’ve managed to update the CapTraderPro dashboard for the first time in three weeks, and now I can continue on my quest to monetize the site, freeing myself up to continue creating great useful content for forex traders.

So…yeah.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

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New research report – Weekly Price Action Statistics

Greetings!

Yes, I’m still alive and kicking.  I’ve been concentrating on the new job I mentioned in the last post which involves working overnight, so I’ve been neglecting the site. But actually…no I haven’t!  I just haven’t posted in a while, but I’ve been working on something else. And here it is!

Yes, I’ve finally finished the second research report. Next, I’ll begin working on the report which details the Fundamental Potential Index that I’ve mentioned in the past.

So I’ll get to work on that while you…keep pipping up!

NOTE:  As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

 

 

 

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Another job switch

Greetings!

The trading account showed another small profit, coming in at 0.23% this week. In other news, I’m again changing jobs. The one I’ve had over the past months is too stressful and time consuming, so this change should give me more time and energy to work on the site. Yay!

That’s it for now. Until next week…keep pipping up!

NOTE:  As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

 

 

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No, really…fade weekly strength

Greetings, and I promise I’m not on crack!

But it may seem that way, as I experience yet another flip-flop on the weekly bar price action research. Initially, I found that fading weekly strength was statistically more profitable. Then, upon reviewing the research, I thought that I had gotten the interpretation backwards, as I reported in this post. However, over the past week, in preparation for writing up the research report, I couldn’t figure out why I had thought that the original conclusion was wrong.

Confusing!

And the silliest part is that most of the confusion stemmed from some color coding I used in MS Excel for the signals and the results. So was I using green vs. red to indicate a bullish or bearish signal bar, or did the color coding indicate the resulting price action of the following weekly bar? Maybe instead of looking at the color of the numbers, I should have been looking at the actual values themselves. Oops. Yeah.

So anyway, upon reviewing the research again (and getting rid of the confusing color coding), I see that my original conclusion was indeed correct. Fading weekly strength, especially in the case of specific price action patterns, is the way to go. Again, this corresponds with much of the research I’ve done in the past, showing a tendency for forex markets to revert to the mean over all time frames.

In other news, the account performance was essentially flat again this week with a tiny profit of 0.1%. Also, I’ve designed the cover for the upcoming research report, and am continuing to work on getting that out.

So I’ll get off the crack while you continue to…keep pipping up!

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

 

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This I believe…

Greetings!

My trading account performance was pretty flat this week, with a loss of 0.17%.  So it looks like I’ve stemmed the tide of red caused by my research interpretation error. Zippy!

In site news, I’m working on two projects. The first is an $8 Research Report on the statistical research I did on weekly bar patterns, and which price action signals are the most effective from week to week. Secondly, I’ve completed an outline for one of the pages in the new Education tab, in which I’ll lay out my overall approach to trading the Forex markets.

Not to keep everyone in suspense, the argument basically goes like this:

Fundamental analysis works…

…but not right away…

…so price is not value…

…therefore timing is critical.

On the actual page, of course, I’ll flesh out these ideas and include a description of the optimal trade setup. I’ll also show how the trading tools I’ve developed (the Fundamental Potential Index, Tick Density, and the new Price Action Strength Indicator) all fit into the approach.

So I’ll get back to that, and you can…keep pipping up!

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

 

 

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Stupid trader tricks

Greetings!

For this week’s stupid trader trick, I’ll make a sign error, causing me to completely misinterpret my research by 180 degrees, buy when I should sell, and vice-versa. Yay!

Yeah, so that’s what I’ve been doing for the past two weeks actually. The research I described in this post does NOT indicate that fading end-of-week strength is the way to go. Upon reviewing the research after a second straight weekly loss of 1%, I found that I had introduced a negative sign into one of my MS Excel formulas for no apparent reason. This caused me to get the interpretation backwards.

Mea culpa, mea culpa!

So, in fact, the research actually supports trading in the direction of end-of-week momentum, specifically when certain bar patterns are present. While this doesn’t correspond to the overall “reversion to the mean” tendency that I’ve seen in other research, it does correspond to the conclusions in the Tick Density research report, which also looks only at a week to week time frame.

I’ve corrected this now, and this week’s pending trades are all pointing in the right direction. As of the time of this post, none of my three pending trades have filled, however. So we’ll see how this week goes.

So don’t trade backwards like me, and you’re sure to…keep pipping up!

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal.

 

 

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