Welcome…

ScottWelcome to The Capitalist Trader, where I discuss markets, money, and math, while promoting reason and liberty. I’m Scott, better known around the interwebz as Capitalist, and I’ll be your host.

If this is your first time at The Capitalist Trader, you may want to read about the site and maybe even a little about me and my mission.  Have a question or a comment? Head over to the Contact tab.

I’ve traded several different markets including equities, fixed income, and options since the 1980’s (yep, I’m old).  Since 2004 however, I’ve concentrated on the foreign exchange, or Forex, markets. Many of the trading resources you’ll find on the site relate specifically to Forex.

So come on in, make yourself comfortable and…keep pipping up!

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GOP tax plan – a rebuttal to the rebuttal on SALT

Greetings!

As the Republican tax plan wends its way through the legislative process, both sides have (of course) deployed their various bullet lists of talking points to the fiscal battlefield. One of the key strategic hills on this battlefield is the elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT).

I’ve seen Treasury Secretary Mnuchin deliver the main GOP talking point on SALT a couple of times (when he’s not mugging for the camera with a sheet of money). The argument is that it’s not fair for states with low or no income taxes to be subsidizing those spendthrift states with high taxes.

Sounds good to me, but here’s the standard rebuttal from the Democrats. They’ll point to New York state and say “Look! New York’s not being subsidized. Why, it’s a donor state! It sends more money to Washington than it gets back!”

I’m sure that’s true. However, I haven’t yet heard any GOP tax cutters rebut this argument by simply pointing out why it’s true. The reason New York pays so much tax to Washington is because many of the “millionaires and billionaires” (that the tax and spend left loves to hate) live there! It’s a result of the inherently unfair progressive tax system. You brought it on yourself New York…by electing the very people that imposed this on you!

End of rant! So now it’s time to…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 11/18/2017

Greetings!

The account was up for a change, gaining 1.00% this week. This brings the equity to 150% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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How high can Bitcoin go?

Greetings!

I thought I’d just do a fun “back of the envelope” calculation today. Let’s estimate a theoretical maximum price for bitcoin. Fun! But beware! This is all based on a few very dubious assumptions:

  • We assume bitcoin becomes the only currency in the world by 2140
  • We assume that there are 21 million bitcoins by 2140
  • We assume that all that bitcoin is equal in value to the worlds total wealth in 2140

I mean, hey, it could happen!

Anyway, Satoshi Nakamoto’s original protocol only allows for a maximum of 21 million bitcoins, and the year 2140 comes from an estimate of when the last block of bitcoin will be mined

So now we just need to know how much wealth the world will have in 2140. According to this report by Credit Suisse, there was $241 trillion worth of “stuff” in 2013 (it’s on page 13 if you’re looking for it). This was approximately double the amount of wealth in 2000.

Great! So let’s assume the world’s weath doubles every 13 years from 2013 to 2140. That’s 127 years, or just under 10 periods of 13 years. If you double something 10 times, you get 1024 (2^10) so let’s just call it 1000 (since we’re on the back of an envelope and all…). So in 2140, we should be looking forward to having about $241 quadrillion in wealth along with 21 million bitcoins with which to buy it all.

Yay! So theoretically then, a bitcoin should be worth about $241 quadrillion divided by 21 million bitcoins, or about $12 billion per bitcoin.

Well, that makes me feel a lot better about not investing in bitcoin five years ago when I first heard about it. But if the price doesn’t reach $12 billion dollars by 2140, please don’t send me nasty emails. After all this was just for fun…or was it?

So while we all wait for 2140…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 11/11/2017

Greetings!

The account was down 0.52% this week, closing at 148% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 11/4/2017

Greetings!

The account was essentially flat this week, losing 0.07% thus remaining at 149% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 10/28/2017

Greetings!

The account was down 0.29% this week, settling at 149% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 10/21/2017

Greetings!

The account was down 0.94% this week, settling at 150% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Two new forex trading experiments

Greetings!

Thought I’d announce a couple of new little forex research projects that I’ve recently started. Both of them involve opening a new sub-account at Oanda in addition to the main account, a step which I took today.

The first sub-account is for trading based purely on the Buying Power Reversal (BPR) indicator. Every week when I update the CapTraderPro dashboard, I notice that the “Pure Fundamental Pick” chart always looks just awesome. The extreme peaks and valleys of the BPR indicator often line up precisely with the lows and highs of the pair price. So in this account, I’ll be taking positions based exclusively on the fundamental BPR rankings.

The other sub-account will be for intra-day trading, probably just during Monday’s London session opening hours at first. I’ve been doing a research project involving the correlation between the behavior of a pair during one hour and the next. The idea is to create a sort of “profile” of the pair’s behavior throughout a typical day or week, identifying the most common reversal times and trending periods. I’ll be publishing those research notes here, just as I did with much of my earlier work from years ago.

After both accounts have been active for a while, and if the results look promising, I’ll add the equity curve charts to the My Trading page.

So stay tuned for that, and…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 10/14/2017

Greetings!

The account was essentially flat this week, rising just 0.36% to 151% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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Weekly Update – 10/7/2017

Greetings!

The account was down 4.42% this week to 151% of inception value.

To get more details on how I trade, take a look at the Trading Profitably page.

Until next time…keep pipping up!

 

NOTE: As always, comments are closed due to WordPress spambots. However, to comment on this or any other post, just go to my Forex Factory journal or Cap’s Forex Musings on Investors Hub.

 

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