Greetings, and I promise I’m not on crack!
But it may seem that way, as I experience yet another flip-flop on the weekly bar price action research. Initially, I found that fading weekly strength was statistically more profitable. Then, upon reviewing the research, I thought that I had gotten the interpretation backwards, as I reported in this post. However, over the past week, in preparation for writing up the research report, I couldn’t figure out why I had thought that the original conclusion was wrong.
And the silliest part is that most of the confusion stemmed from some color coding I used in MS Excel for the signals and the results. So was I using green vs. red to indicate a bullish or bearish signal bar, or did the color coding indicate the resulting price action of the following weekly bar? Maybe instead of looking at the color of the numbers, I should have been looking at the actual values themselves. Oops. Yeah.
So anyway, upon reviewing the research again (and getting rid of the confusing color coding), I see that my original conclusion was indeed correct. Fading weekly strength, especially in the case of specific price action patterns, is the way to go. Again, this corresponds with much of the research I’ve done in the past, showing a tendency for forex markets to revert to the mean over all time frames.
In other news, the account performance was essentially flat again this week with a tiny profit of 0.1%. Also, I’ve designed the cover for the upcoming research report, and am continuing to work on getting that out.
So I’ll get off the crack while you continue to…keep pipping up!
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