Weekly Price Action Statistics – January, 2017

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Discover a new forex trading edge — that’s actually easy to use!

In 2015 when I published the Tick Density report, I knew that the method had one major drawback; although it’s pretty accurate, it’s a pain to use. The tick density method involves setting up a complex spreadsheet and then tediously updating the price and tick volume data each week. While this is fine for some traders, many others will find it unwieldy, too time consuming, or too confusing.

I even ran into one of these issues myself when I changed jobs and found I no longer had the time each weekend to update my data. So I embarked on a new research project to find an edge that was easier to use. After some confusion described in this post and later cleared up in this post, I completed the research.

The result was “Weekly Price Action Statistics,” the second in my series of research reports. This report describes a trading method that uses only the raw price action of weekly bars. There are no indicators or tedious calculations involved. Thus, a trader can apply this method in an instant, just by eyeballing the chart.

The trend is your friend…until it ends.

The report’s conclusion comes down solidly on the contrarian side. I found that strong weekly moves in one direction are more likely to reverse than to continue, especially when one or more of three specific price action events occur.

My model for why this happens is that large commercial traders (who actually need various currencies for real-world business activities) will tend to accumulate or distribute their holdings at good bargain prices, i.e. when price moves strongly outside what they perceive to be the “fair value” of the currency. Further, there are certain price action events, such as a close outside of the prior week’s range, which tend to get the attention of these traders, causing them to jump into the market and bring the prior week’s momentum to a screeching halt.

Inside this 21-page report you’ll find:

  • More detail on this conceptual model
  • Why it makes a lot of sense to trade weekly bars
  • The 3 clear price action events that work best
  • An inside peek at how to conduct statistical research on price behavior, along with full details of the research and data behind this trading edge
  • Details of how I trade this edge, and my early live results

So what’s the difference between this and tick density?

One thing I’ve learned over three decades of trading is that there are always trade-offs. Every advantage comes at some price, and the same is true here. I suspect that because this method uses only raw price action and leaves out the insights provided by tick-volume, it may be less accurate than the edge provided by tick density. However, as I mentioned above, it’s a lot easier and faster to use. A trader can see in an instant whether or not there’s a signal, and whether to buy or sell.

 

One thing that never changes though is the full, no questions asked, money back guarantee on each research report here at capitalisttrader.com. When you buy the report, just copy and save your PayPal receipt. For a refund, just contact me at capitalist@capitalisttrader.com and include the receipt. I’ll send your $8 right back via PayPal. The report is yours to keep.

Who am I?

I’m Scott Percival, otherwise know as The Capitalist Trader. I have been:

  • a civil engineer,
  • a software developer
  • a trader and instructor at Fidelity Investments
  • a self-employed trader
  • A freelance writer on the energy industry for The Motley Fool
  • a soldier
  • and a few other things, even a truck driver!

As you can probably tell from my background, I’m very math/logic oriented, so I started this blog to discuss three of the most fun things in the world; markets, money, and math!

Why sell the edge? Why not just trade it?

That’s a perfectly legitimate question, and I’ve asked it of others myself. Whenever I saw anyone selling trading lessons or whatever, I would wonder, “Well, if this method makes you money, why do you need my money?”

Then I found out that it’s useless to be profitable when you’re greatly under-capitalized.

In 2003, after a big layoff at Fidelity Investments, I spent several months trading bulletin board stocks. Each month, my account was earning a little under 10%, but I was withdrawing over 20% for living expenses. Obviously, that’s not sustainable.

More than a decade later, I find myself in a similar boat. My account is currently profitable, but I’m withdrawing more than the account earns in order to supplement my income.  So I decided to generate extra income from all the research I do. After all, the best way to earn money is doing something for which you have a passion, right?

OK, makes sense. So what now?

Get the report and read it, of course! Click on one of these boring blue “Purchase” buttons, and buy with the ease and security of PayPal.

 

Then, judge for yourself. If you think the report is bunk, send me your PayPal receipt and I’ll send your $8.00 right back. And of course you can still keep the report!

So why wait? Look, I’ll even add another boring blue button below. Have fun, happy reading, happy trading, and as I always say…keep pipping up!

 

 

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